What are my odds of stopping work by a given year?
Asking whether you can stop work in a given year returns a yes or a no. Asking how often it works out across many different futures returns something more honest: a sense of how much that date depends on things going well, and how much of it would survive a poor decade.
What moves the chance
- The target year, and how many years of spending the plan has to cover after it.
- How much of the requirement rests on investment growth against steadier income.
- The level of spending you assume once earned income has stopped.
- The reserve, and the order money would be drawn from once you stop working.
- The final year of the plan, and the assumptions the test varies along the way.
One year against another
Change only the target year between runs; keep spending, contributions, and everything else unchanged. The results then show how much each additional year of work improves the plan’s chance of success.
That slope is usually more useful than any one number. If a year either side barely moves the result, the date is not what is under strain — spending or the reserve probably is. If it moves sharply, the plan is sitting on an edge, and small changes will keep mattering after this one.
Questions worth testing
- How much does the chance change for each extra year of work?
- What does spending a tenth less after stopping do to the same target year?
- How different is the result when more income comes from steadier sources?
- Does a larger reserve move the chance, or barely register at all?
How to read the result
The result shows how often the plan succeeds across simulated futures based on your assumptions. It is not the probability of what will actually happen or a market forecast. A high value is not a guarantee, and a low one is not a judgement of you or your plan. Plan Resilience is a Worthifi Pro feature. This is a planning illustration, not financial advice.
How it works in the app
Plan Resilience breaks its results down by goal, including the chance you could stop working by a chosen year, alongside solvency, passive-cashflow coverage, and debt-free milestones. These are chances across simulated futures, not a guaranteed outcome.
- Open a plan and tap “Test your plan” under Plan Resilience.
- Scroll to “Chances by goal”.
- Check the probability for stopping work by your target year.
Requires Worthifi Pro
Model this yourself